It’s a huge showdown in the Swamp this Saturday, with Florida hosting Ole MIss.  Both teams are coming off emotional wins last week, and each tries to keep the train rolling in SEC play.  The Rebels closed out former head coach Lane Kiffin and his new school, LSU, at home, and will provide the first of a handful of huge challenges for the Gators this season.

The Rebels are led by QB Trinidad Chambliss, who pilots a fast-paced, high-scoring offense that is similar in style to Auburn, but is faster and more efficient and led by a much better QB.  Chambliss is a dangerous runner and a better passer than Byrum Brown, and leads the SEC with 308 passing yards per game.  He’s also their second-leading ball carrier, showing how important he is to the offense and why he’s a Heisman candidate.  Kewan Lacy is in the discussion for best RB in the SEC, and is also a decent receiver.  His status for the game will be watched closely, as he injured his shoulder against LSU and will be a game-time decision.  If he can’t play or sees limited action, that’s a big help for the Gators.  WR Deuce Alexander is one of the fastest players in the country, leads the SEC in receptions and receiving yards, and is Chambliss’ primary target.  TE Caleb Odom is a huge target and averages 19 yards per catch.  Ole Miss has plenty of weapons to challenge Florida’s defense, and the Gators have a tough task ahead just to slow down the Rebels somewhat to give their offense enough possessions and scoring opportunities to win.   DC Brad White and Head Coach Jon Sumrall are not happy with the defensive results so far, nor should they be.  There have been too many missed assignments in the secondary allowing easy pass completions, and the LBs – thought to be the strength of the unit – have not had much impact.  If this means simplifying the scheme to let the defenders more easily identify their responsibility each play, then have at it, because Ole Miss will carve them up if they don’t improve.  The D-line has been solid so far, and had it’s breakout performance at Auburn.  Now – can they continue that level of play?  They’ll have to disrupt the Rebel offense and get Chambliss off of his first read.  He’s elusive enough that he can make scramble plays against any defense in the country, but he also will turn the ball over when successfully pressured.

Florida’s offense will again have to be proficient and score a lot of points.  The Ole MIss defense can be had, especially in the passing game, so I expect more up-tempo pace and passes that attack all 3 levels of the Rebel defense.  In a perfect world, the Gators could control time of possession by running Jaden Baugh and Duke Clark a combined 40+ times and limiting the number of possessions for the Rebel offense.  But given Florida’s defensive lapses to date plus the elite playmaking ability of Chambliss, I don’t think they’ll have that luxury and will need as many scoring opportunities as they can get.  Having this game at home should be a huge advantage for the Gator offense to limit penalties and communicate play calls quickly.  Florida’s O-line will have to play it’s best game yet, as the Rebels have rolled up 22 sacks through just 3 games.  The OL have to clean up some pass protection issues, especially the tackles.  Suntarine Perkins is one of the best pass rushers in the SEC, and the Ole Miss LB corps is strong and includes the team’s 3 leading tacklers, including Tah’j Butler and Keaton Thomas.

Florida does seem to have a slight advantage on special teams, and winning in the margins may be the difference.  PK Patrick Durkin has been great so far, and VB3 is a threat in the return game when given the chance.  Every phase of the game will need to be on point to win.

This game has the makings of another wild shootout.  It will be interesting to see if Florida’s coaching staff can get it’s younger, less-experienced team refocused.   Ole Miss has now played it’s last 6 games going back to last year’s Playoff against ranked opponents, going 5-1.  That experience against tough competition can’t be overstated, and gives them a decided mental edge.  If things go sideways early for them, they will not panic.  Florida won’t have the luxury of easing off in the 4th quarter like last week – this game will be a 60 minute war, and likely not decided until very late.  I picked Ole Miss to win in my preseason preview, and I’m going to stick with that, despite Florida’s marked improvement from last season.  The Gators certainly have a chance to win – especially at The Swamp – but will have to play even better overall than against Auburn to do it.  Winning the turnover battle and limiting penalties will be critical to Florida’s chances.

Prediction:

Mississippi 38

Florida 35

Florida earned a much needed 44-39 win at Auburn Saturday night.  This result was huge for many reasons – Jon Sumrall’s program, the confidence of a team not used to winning big games under Basement Billy, injecting life and juice into the fan base, and putting the rest of the SEC on notice that Florida must be reckoned with again.

The game wasn’t pretty at times, with the Gators committing 16 penalties (some very dubious), while the defense struggled to get off the field on 3rd and 4th down too often and did a poor job of closing out the 4th quarter.  While disappointing, I can’t say I’m shocked, given the poor coaching and losing mentality left behind by Rural Meyer.  Many of these current Gators had little starting experience in such a tough environment, nerves were certainly a factor, and the O-line and secondary have been rebuilt.  But after 60 minutes it was clear that Florida was the superior team, and the game itself wasn’t as close as the final score.

Buster Faulkner has to be the early front-runner for National Assistant Coach of the Year.  He completely schooled Auburn DC DJ Durkin, as the Gators rolled up 495 yards of offense, which included 200+ rushing yards against a solid SEC defense and only one punt.  Faulkner’s playcalling and scheme were quick, decisive, and aggressive – all of which have been missing in Gainesville for far too long.  QB Aaron Philo was sharp, making good reads and throws even when taking some big hits.  He looked calm and in command all night, and has ended any concerns about the offseason battle for the starting job.  Jaden Baugh had 162 yards and 3 rushing TDs, again showing why he is in the conversation for best RB in the SEC and starting to receive national attention.  Notably, it appears that Duke Clark has solidified the RB2 slot, as he delivered two massive clutch plays – breaking multiple tackles for a TD on 3rd and goal from the 20, and then catching a 4th down pass to extend Florida’s last scoring possession in the 4th quarter, which led to a 12-point lead with under 11 minutes left – enough for the defense to protect despite it’s letdown.  WRs VB3 and Dallas Wilson were open all night and had quite a few chunk plays, including a TD reception by Wilson on a beautiful seam route.  The Gator O-line held up well enough despite some annoying procedure penalties and some occasional shoddy pass-blocking by the tackles.  Finally, the offense ran up-tempo for much of the night, not allowing Auburn to substitute as often as it wished and simplifying the defenses it had to face – what a concept!   It’s funny to think of how a 44 point explosion on the road could leave room for improvement, but there’s still plenty to work on – especially for the OL.  Quite the turnaround from the last 4 years of mostly slow-paced, poorly played, unimaginative garbage. 

Florida’s defense was a weird dichotomy of big plays combined with mental and physical letdowns that allowed Auburn to stay closer than it should have.  Cormani McClain made a huge interception on Auburn’s first drive to set up Florida’s opening score and gain momentum.  The front seven controlled the Tiger running game less some scramble plays from QB Byrum Brown.  The D-line racked up 7 sacks led by Emmanuel Oyebadejo, who looked like a man amongst boys.  His performance shows what can happen when opponents have to focus on Jayden Woods, who had 2.5 sacks of his own despite many double-teams.  The Gators allowed only 212 yards through 3 quarters before a sloppy finish allowed Auburn to rack up 160 yards and 2 TDs in the last 10 minutes.  That required the offense to continue to grind out some first downs and a late FG to keep the lead safe.  The secondary is still letting receivers get wide open too often, and the LBs have been mysteriously quiet.  DC Brad White really needs to simplify things and play a more aggressive style, because this is not sustainable against the better teams left on the schedule.

Special teams were solid again.  PK Patrick Durkin converted his 2 FG attempts and is still perfect on the season, and 7 of his 9 kickoffs were touchbacks.  Punter Alec Clark might be the loneliest man in college football, getting only his third punt attempt of the season late in the 4th quarter when the Gators were simply running time off the clock to preserve a 12-point lead.  VB3’s only punt return went for over 20 yards, but was called back due to a bad penalty away from the play.

I’ve listed a lot of issues for the staff and players to work on, but I haven’t lost sight of the fact that this game was a massive boost for the program and what Jon Sumrall is trying to build.  Auburn is not near the elite teams left on the schedule, but winning on the Plains, rolling up 44 points, and actually earning an important win gives the players confidence in both themselves and the coaching staff.  There are much bigger challenges ahead, but positive results like this can build momentum and give some juice to the team and Gator Nation.  Getting a winning feeling back and actually having fun playing the games has been missing since 2020.  Things start to get really interesting next week, with the Gators hosting Ole Miss In a battle of unbeatens with much of the nation watching – as it should be.

The  preliminaries are over, and sh*t is about to get real starting Saturday night at Auburn.  Despite two easy wins, Gator Nation and the rest of the country are waiting to see if Florida is really on a better trajectory under Jon Sumrall.  It may be too soon to tell no matter the outcome, but perception is reality – moreso now than ever.

Auburn’s offense is led by QB Byrum Brown, who transferred from USF to the Plains to follow head coach Alex Golesh.  Golesh brought in a total 13 players from USF – 11 on offense – with Brown and leading WR Keshaun Singleton being the most important.  The Tigers have incorporated the same fast-tempo USF offense, and Florida’s defense must be alert and ready.  Brown is more a running threat than a passing one, and DC Brad White has to know this and have his unit ready for designed runs and scramble plays.  Fortunately, the Gators have already experienced a similar offense against FAU, and many of the current defenders played USF in the Swamp last season, so they do have familiarity with the scheme and pace.  Brown is essentially a one-trick pony – get him off his first read, and he’ll start to scramble and run.  It’s incumbent on the front seven to get some pressure on Brown and force him into making reads and increasing the chances for a turnover.  Auburn has some decent RBs in Jeremiah Cobb and Omar Mabson, but neither is a breakaway threat.  In fact, Brown leads the team in carries, and Florida should be ready to spy him to prevent him extending drives.  Auburn’s WR corps isdecent, but lacks gamebreakers.  Singleton is by far brown’s favorite receiver, and the defense should mark him closely.  Florida’s biggest edge might be against the Tiger O-line.  It has 5 new starters made up of mostly transfers, and had some serious struggles in their first game against Baylor.  Florida has to be able to disrupt the blocking schemes and cause some havoc, or else it may be a long night.

Florida’s offense has not been tested yet, and Auburn has a strong front seven led by a solid LB corps featuring leading tackler Elijah Melendez.  I am sure that DC DJ Durkin will be heating up QB Aaron Philo and the O-line all game.  That, plus the crowd noise, makes this a tough challenge and a stark contrast to the first 2 games.  Philo must be smart, make quick and decisive reads and attack the Tiger secondary, which showed some weakness against Baylor.  He has all the weapons he needs in Jaden Baugh, VB3, and Dallas Wilson, but can the O-line give him the time to make the right reads and plays?  Auburn will be focused on challenging the LOS and stopping Baugh, so there will be opportunities for explosive plays in the passing game.  Florida has not thrown much to the running backs so far, but they are capable receivers and could be a way to offset pressure on Philo and to generate some big plays.  I am confident in OC Brad Faulkner and OC Coach Phil Trautwein to devise a winning game plan, but I’m not sure they have the horses on the O-line to execute it.  Faulkner will undoubtedly have plenty of formations and plays he hasn’t revealed on film the first two games.  That’s why they play the games, and we’ll see soon enough.  

Auburn’s special teams are solid with PK Alex McPherson and Rayshawn Pleasant on kickoff returns.  However, Florida comes in with a decided advantage in kicking experience with PK Patrick Durkin and P Alec Clark, and has the current co-SEC special teams player of the week in VB3 returning punts.  I feel good about this matchup, and in a close game with so many unknowns on both sides, this could be the difference in the outcome.

Auburn is a tough place to play and weird things happen to opponents there – many times due to extremely shady officiating – both on the field and in the replay booth.  Their fan base has been suffering for much of the past decade and is in a similar place as Florida’s – desperately hoping for a turnaround of fortune and some meaningful success.  Two similar teams, two new head coaches in their first big matchup at their new school, and the result could be a massive boost for the winner and an equally large setback for the loser for the rest of this season.  Any momentum that can be gained during the game will be especially big for two teams looking to turn their fortunes around and coming in with fragile psyches.  It will be a wild atmosphere on the Plains, and we’ll see quickly if Sumrall and his staff have the Gators focused and ready.  I picked Florida to win in my season preview and I’ll stick with that pick, but I expect a tough game that could go either way.  

Prediction:

Florida 23

Auburn 20

As expected, Florida rolled to an easy 52-3 victory Saturday night.  The outcome was never in doubt, and the coaching staff was able to clear out the bench starting early in the 3rd quarter with a 45-3 lead.  While the score wasn’t close, it was obvious that the team’s focus wasn’t as sharp as last week, as I’m sure many were thinking ahead to this week’s huge game at Auburn.

The Gator offense looked sluggish at times, even while amassing over 500 yards of total offense.  The running game lacked the power I expected to see, with Jaden Baugh’s 75 yard TD run the only real highlight.  The best development was the continued sharp play of Aaron Philo in the passing game, as he threw for 242 yards and 2 TDs.  It was good to see WR Dallas Wilson utilized more often, as he racked up 104 yards and a TD.  The O-line was unimpressive in it’s run blocking, and that has to improve markedly for Florida to have any real chance at success going forward.  Losing the time of possession battle to the Camels was unacceptable.

The Gator defense was solid, allowing only 210 total yards and holding Campbell to 5-18 on 3rd down attempts.  The D-line looked better as they should have against an outmatched opponent, but there is still a lot of room for improvement in terms of getting push at the point of attack.  The secondary was unchallenged most of the night, but there still were a few instances of soft coverage on some intermediate and flat routes that have to get corrected.

The real highlights came from Florida’s special teams.  VB3 had 2 punt return TDs, matching Quez Green’s game against Kentucky in 1996.  Patrick Durkin made his only FG attempt and all 9 of his kickoffs were touchbacks.  Florida’s coverage units have not been tested at all in the first 2 games, and won’t have that luxury starting this week – I hope they are ready.

Overall, a good game, and importantly no significant injuries were sustained.  Coach Sumrall did not look happy after the game, and for good reason – the mental game was lacking the entire second half, and that can’t be allowed to become the norm.  The prelims are over – it’s time for the real season to begin.

Florida hosts it’s second straight home game to begin the 2026 season, welcoming the Campbell Camels.  Campbell is a small private Christian school in North Carolina, and are playing far above their class this week.  

The Gators should be able to trace out to a big lead in the 1st half, then empty the bench throughout the 2nd half to rest the starters while giving the backups and younger players some live reps.  The only question will be how soon the starters get pulled from the game.  I don’t expect anything schematically on either offense or defense other than the most basic and vanilla game plan.  The focus should be mostly on repetition, timing, and sound blocking and tackling.  The Gators will have an overwhelming advantage across the board in talent, depth, and speed.  Apologies for the short preview, but there really isn’t much to analyze or discuss in any detail – it’s that large of a mismatch. 

The only question for the Camels will be one hump, er…..lump, or two?  These Christians are definitely being thrown to the Lions, er…..Gators, and hopefully are getting a large paycheck for the pain that will be administered.  As always in a glorified scrimmage like this, my biggest wish is……NO INJURIES.  Things start to get very real for Florida next week.

Prediction:

Florida 59

Campbell 6

Florida got off to a strong start for 2026 with a big win over FAU.  The Gators started fast, jumping to a 17-0 lead after the 1st quarter.  Then came some expected struggles on defense allowing FAU to close to 24-14, before stretching out the lead to 38-14 at the half.  Then the Gators pulled away in the 2nd half for the final score of 66-21.

Florida’s offense rolled up 624 yards – 281 rushing and 343 passing.  Jaden Baugh looked every bit an all-SEC candidate with 160 rushing yards and 3 TDs, Aaron Philo had 275 yards passing and 3 TDs, and VB3 led the WRs with 117 yards and 1 TD.  Philo looked fairly comfortable and in control, moving around in the pocket when necessary and making mostly accurate throws.  The O-line was what I was focused on, and they performed pretty well for the most part.  They committed only 1 penalty, kept the pocket clean for most of the game, and were able to dominate the FAU D-line – as they should.  The Owl D-line was able to generate some pressure occasionally, and when they blitzed it caused some protection issues for Florida.  I’m sure that will be a point of emphasis for Coach Trautwein all season – especially when the level of competition increases significantly.  The Gators were also 8-8 in the red zone and won the time of possession battle.  All of these developments were quite the contrast from the Napier Error, and a welcome sight – even given the limitations of the opponent.  The only real disappointment for the offense was seeing WR Eric Singleton limp off the field very early with an ankle injury, and he did not return.

The Gator defense was good overall, but had some rough patches and showed they still have plenty of areas for improvement.  The interior rush defense struggled at times, but some of that was due to focusing on containing the FAU quick–passing game more than defending the run.  The secondary had some good coverage moments and came up with 2 interceptions, but also was too soft in the flats and short zones.  I was a little disappointed that DC Brad White played his CBs so soft, allowing the Owls to generate 25 first downs and extend a few drives by converting many 3rd downs.  It may be too early to know if he was just being conservative, knowing the game was in hand, or if there are underlying coverage issues that may be exposed later.  Surprisingly, Florida did not force a single punt, with FAU drives ending either with a score, a turnover, or losing possession on downs.  That’s probably the largest disappointment from the defense.

There wasn’t much to glean from the Special Teams, as Florida never punted and was conservative on kickoff and punt returns.  New PK Patrick Durkin looked solid, making his only FG attempt of 53 yards (a career best) and with a touchback on 10 of his 11 kickoffs.

Major Props to S&C coach Rusty Whitt.  The offensive and defensive linemen looked leaner, faster, and in MUCH better shape than what’s been seen in Gainesville since the Urban Meyer years.  No slow, sloppy, fat guys getting pushed around and weakening in the second half.  Quite a welcome change, and it will pay benefits all season.

Overall, a solid game for Jon Sumrall’s Florida debut.  Most of the roster saw some playing time, the offense was explosive, the defense generated some turnovers, and the overall vibe around the team seems fun and exciting again.

The Jon Sumrall Era begins at the Swamp against FAU.  Gator Nation actually has some reason for excitement again and I expect a sellout crowd for the Labor Day weekend home opener.

The Owls will be especially hyped for this in-state matchup, and with a roster mostly composed of Florida-born players they will have extra motivation to take on the Gators.  Head Coach Zach Kittley is in his 2nd year at FAU, and is a young, offensive-minded coach who runs an Air Raid passing offense at breakneck speed.  Senior QB Caden Veltcamp threw for 3,641 yards and 24 TDs last season as the Owls led the nation in passing yards per game.  WR Easton Messner caught 104 passes for over 1,000 yards.  But there were serious problems – FAU’s running game was weak, the Owls led the nation with 20 interceptions and 29 turnovers overall, and had the worst turnover margin at the FBS level at -21.  Most of the passing game is predicated on quick throws in the flat and short zones to stress the defense across the entire field.  But it struggles with 3rd down conversions which, along with the struggles in the running game, really hurts their chances against better opponents.  I do expect FAU to have some success, especially early in the game until the Gator defense can acclimate to the speed of their offense.  Florida has enough speed on defense to be able to adapt, and hopefully enough depth to spell defenders when they tire.  The fast pace of the Owls does make it difficult to substitute players unless there is a stoppage in play or a penalty.  The revamped Florida secondary had some struggles in fall scrimmages, and this will be a stern test.  There will likely be some mixups in coverage early on, and it will be interesting to see if DC Brad White stays in mostly zone coverage or has to make adjustments if that isn’t working well.

The FAU defense was one of the worst against the run last season, and while most of their players returned, that might not be the best news.  They are led by undersized LB Leon Hart Jr., who looks more like a safety but has good instincts and speed.  Their pass rush is actually decent, led by DT CJ Doggette and edge rushers Deshawn Batiste and Wilky Denaud.  It will be no surprise to see Florida line up and play smash-mouth football with their running game, both to exploit the Owl defense and also keep the high-powered FAU passing game on the sideline.  Despite the questions for the Gator O-line heading into the season, Florida should be able to control the line of scrimmage.  If it doesn’t, then the worried whispers about the OL will start to turn into shouts.  I expect a heavy dose of Jaden Baugh and the other RBs, but this should also open up some shots downfield for the passing game – especially on early downs.  Aaron Philo won the QB competition in fall camp and was named the starter, and will have the attention of not just FAU but the fans in the stands and watching on TV.  Florida simply has too many elite skill players for FAU to contain, and I expect a good number of explosive plays.

This game will set the tone for the Gators in terms of getting out of the gate fast and building momentum for the challenges ahead.  Sumrall will have his players jacked up and ready to play.  I do expect some mistakes on both sides of the ball due to the new schemes and some new faces, but nothing that can’t be overcome without too much worry.  The score may stay fairly close into the 3rd quarter, but Florida should pull away with it’s advantages in talent and depth.  Gator Nation is ready to wash away the stench of the Billy Napier Error and move forward.

Prediction:

Florida 41

FAU 17