Chaos Theory

What a crazy week – not just in the SEC, but across the country.  5 of the Top 7 teams in the country lost, while 2 others were in death struggles.  Of course, the day was led off by Florida rising from the dead and upsetting Texas 27-24 in Austin.  Few – including me – thought it would happen, but I’m so happy to be wrong.  At least I was there in person to watch the Gators come back from a 17-3 deficit to stun the Longhorns and  – for now – quiet some of the noise from both the media and fan base as to where the season was heading.

For most of the first half, it was a continuation of the poor play and uninspired effort that marked the previous two bad losses.  The offense struggled under the leadership of QB Tramell Jones, who got the start due to a shoulder injury sustained by Aaron Philo the week before.  The Gators looked listless while struggling to establish the running game – again – and were unable to sustain any drive until the end of the first half.  It wasn’t pretty, but somehow Florida put together a TD drive in the last 4 minutes of the half, chipping away at a stout Longhorn defense with short completions and finally generating a semblance of a running game with Jaden Baugh.  Jones extended the drive with perhaps the most important play of the season to date – a completion to Dallas Wilson to convert a 4th-and-12 and inject some life into the offensive players.  That led to a TD pass to TE Lacota Dippre to cut the lead to 17-10 at halftime.  The offense then came out and drove for the tying touchdown on the opening possession of the second half, coming on another TD reception by Dippre.  It was great to see the TE utilized in the passing game again after disappearing during the two losses.  That completely turned the momentum around and gave the entire team the belief they were in the game and capable of winning.  From there to the end of the game, Florida dominated time of possession, finishing with 37 minutes, running 81 plays, and smartly executing OC Buster Faulkner’s conservative game plan.  Jones completed 22 passes for only 155 yards, but did just enough through the air to provide some balance to the offensive attack.  Most importantly – he threw no interceptions on his 35 attempts.  Faulkner did unveil some unusual formations and misdirection plays that confused Texas and helped Florida finish 8-18 on 3rd-down conversions after starting 0-6.  Even the O-line showed some toughness and resolve after embarrassing itself the previous 2 weeks.  They were able to give Baugh just enough room to make some key first downs and finish with 91 yards and a TD, and gave Jones enough time to convert 3rd-down completions despite a ferocious Texas pass rush.  After the defense forced a Manning fumble with just over 2 minutes left, the offense ground out the first down that iced the game while forcing Texas to burn all of it’s timeouts in the process.  Props to the WRs, many of whom, including Wilson, Eric Singleton, and Micah Mays, were battling injuries throughout the game and gutted it out.  It also didn’t help that VB3 was out for the 3rd straight game.  Finally, a continuing issue is too many silly penalties ending series early and forcing the defense into tough situations, and that has to stop.  Again, it wasn’t pretty or exciting, but winning is always the goal.  

Florida’s defense started out slowly, allowing Texas to easily score a TD on it’s first possession of the game, and then giving up another long drive that ended with a FG and a 10-0 deficit to overcome.  At that point it appeared it would be a repeat of most of the first 6 games, and you could sense some desperation along the Gator sideline.  Then – suddenly – the defense awoke, and from that point until 6 minutes left in the game, they shut down Texas, holding them under 100 yards of offense during that time and giving the offense the opportunities it needed to get itself going.  We finally saw some blitzing and some line stunts that seemed to confuse the Texas O-line and QB Arch Manning, helping to generate 5 sacks and holding the Longhorns to under 100 yards passing until less than 5 minutes remained in the game. DE LJ McCray was a menace the entire 2nd half, sacking Manning twice and harassing him numerous times.  The LBs tackled well in space and blitzed successfully, and the entire front seven did a good job of limiting Manning’s scrambling ability and also stopping Texas on two short 4th-down attempts.  Other than the opening drive, the defense held up well, less the 62-yard completion on a 4th-down scramble play that got the Longhorns right back into the game with more than 4 minutes still remaining.  This coming right after Baugh’s TD run that made the score 27-17 with 6 minutes left and had many Texas faithful heading for the exits.  Manning was exposed – again – as a barely-adequate QB that is vastly overrated and cannot consistently read defenses or provide a complementary passing game.  The defense also recovered 2 fumbles – the last coming on a sack of Manning to help clinch the victory when it looked like Florida was about to throw away all the good it had done. 

I also have to mention the special teams.  They were excellent the entire game, less one glaring play.  Patrick Durkin converted his 2 FG attempts into a swirling wind, and 5 of his 6 kickoffs were touchbacks.  But the player of the game may have been punter Alec Clark.  He averaged 52 yards on his 6 punts, including a 75-yarder that should have been downed at the 1-yard line except for an unfortunate mistake by the coverage team.  He flipped the field on every kick except for that aforementioned miscue.  The one unfortunate play was allowing a 63-yard punt return TD that made the score 17-3 Texas and really put the Gators in a hole.  The coverage units have been very good all year, but sometimes you just get beat by a sterling individual effort.  Other than that, another solid performance from this unit that definitely helped secure the win.

So, here we are at the bye week, with the Gators sporting a 5-2 record and two wins over Top 10 opponents at the time of kickoff.  It’s hard to believe that this was Florida’s first road win against a Top 10 opponent since defeating Florida St. in 2012.  This was a huge win for the program and for Jon Sumrall to help quiet some of the criticism and hopefully get the players re-energized for the upcoming games.  There are still plenty of challenges ahead, and also the question of who will be the starting QB.  Jones may have earned the nod given his performance on the road in his first-ever start, but Philo’s health and what happens in practice the next two weeks will be important.  There are many players with nagging injuries that desperately need this off week to heal up.  It’s already been a wild roller-coaster ride, and it could easily continue starting on Halloween against Georgia.

A suddenly reeling Florida now must go on the road to face a Texas team coming off of a bitter and mostly-self-inflicted loss to Oklahoma in it’s annual rivalry game.  You can bet the Longhorns will be pissed off even more than trying to avenge last year’s embarrassing loss at The Swamp to Billy Napier of all people.  Any hopes I had of Texas sleepwalking into this game with an early 11:00 am local kickoff and perhaps a mental letdown after the Red River Rivalry game have now evaporated.

If Florida is to have any chance at all to steal a huge upset win, the defense somehow has to find a way to gain some semblance of stability – especially in the secondary.  QB Arch Manning is vastly overhyped and overrated and can be forced into mistakes, but I just don’t know if DC Brad White (or Sumrall, or whomever) can put the Gator defenders in position often enough to generate some turnovers and get enough stops to give a struggling Gator offense enough opportunities to win.  Unfortunately, I suspect that means we will see more zone coverage to try and force the Longhorns and Manning to be patient and hope for physical or mental mistakes – not comforting.  The front seven showed more aggression in it’s pass rush last week, and I think they can cause problems for Manning despite his running ability.  The tackling last week against South Carolina was the worst of the season, and that is something that can be improved just from better focus and effort – if the defenders aren’t starting to mentally check out.  I sure hope not – the season is only half way over, but you can sense the growing frustration among the Gator defenders.Leaders like Jayden Woods and Myles Graham have to make some big plays to inject some juice into the defense.  Finally – somehow, some way, the secondary has to play better by getting into the right position and sticking to the Longhorn receivers.  I’ve seen no evidence of it to date, but here’s (blindly) hoping.  If not, expect another blowout loss.

Florida’s offense will be facing by far it’s toughest defense to date.  Texas is loaded with talent at all three levels, allowing only 96 yards rushing and 16 points per game.  DE Colin Simmons leads the SEC with 9.5 sacks, 12.5 TFL, and is a likely 1st-round NFL pick.  LBs Rasheem Biles and Justin Cryer and excellent at filling gaps and also in coverage.  And as usual Texas is loaded with elite secondary talent, led by Jelani McDonald, Kade Phillips, and Derek Williams.  All three are sure tacklers and also aren’t afraid of playing run support.  Buster Faulkner will have his plate full trying to establish any sort of consistent offense against this group, and perhaps will have to rely more on specific formations and individual big plays than any methodical drives led by the running game.  I’m guessing that Aaron Philo will start at QB, and he’ll have to play his best game to have any chance of success.  But don’t be surprised to see Tramell Jones come in for a few series as early as the first half to perhaps throw the Longhorns a few changeups and perhaps spark the offense with some specific play calls.  The Gator WRs need to play much better and more aggressively, despite nagging injuries to Dallas Wilson and Bailey Stockton.  Here’s hoping that VB3 will return to action, but he will not be at 100%, just like Eric Singleton, who is gamely trying to play each week but never was allowed to recover from his ankle injury in the opener.  Perhaps either TJ Abrams or Micah Mays can surprise, but neither has done much so far.  It’s looking bleak for the offense, unless the O-line suddenly surprises again and gets out of it’s recent funk.  This is simply not a favorable matchup for Florida.

Jon Sumrall and the Gators are staring at a potential 5- or 6-game losing streak, and one of the most difficult things to do in sports sometimes is to reverse a sudden and massive shift in momentum.  The coaches and players are all saying the right things – for now – but I’m afraid the weaknesses in the roster have been exposed and that the better opponents on the schedule can exploit them too easily to overcome.  Of course, one big win can change the narrative, but that looks like a tall order right now.  I’m afraid there’s gonna be Gator meat added to the BBQ menus in Austin this weekend.

Prediction:

Texas 41

Florida 17

And just like that, the wheels have fallen off and the season suddenly stands on the brink of an epic disappointment.  Florida suffered another embarrassing defeat, this time losing at home 38-19 against a reeling South Carolina team that was able to get well in The Swamp.  Shane Beamer gets a temporary stay of execution courtesy of the Gator defense, while Florida stares down at the abyss……again.

Once again, Florida’s defense was terrible, allowing QB LaNorris Sellers to look like Patrick Mahomes while piling up 318 yards of total offense and 5 total TDs (4 pass, 1 run).  This is now looking alarmingly just like what Todd Grantham, Patrick Toney, and Austin Armstrong rolled out as previous defensive coordinators going back to 2020.  Poor tackling, inexplicably bad pass coverage, and an inability to get off the field on 3rd downs.  I was not kidding when I mentioned last week that Jon Sumrall may have to do something drastic regarding DC Brad White, and now I believe it’s necessary.  These kinds of performances cannot be allowed to continue, and massive changes need to be made.  Yes, it’s drastic to do something like that mid-season, but Sumrall needs to take this on head first – and now.  There was some improved pressure on the QB with some blitzing and 7-man fronts, but too often Sellers was allowed to escape the rush due to missed tackles, and when he had time to throw it was far too easy to pick apart the Gator secondary.  What’s happened to the secondary is beyond words – these players are too talented and athletic to look as bad as they do right now.  Meanwhile, the front seven allow Sellers to escape pressure outside the pocket too often, despite knowing the running threat he was.  That extended to many drives and you could sense the confidence building in the Gamecocks as the game wore on.  Too many breakdowns, too many missed assignments, and another second half fade to black.  

The Florida offense had some moments in the first half, but those came mostly through the passing game, as Carolina made sure to load the box and force Aaron Philo and a banged-up group of receivers to beat them….and they couldn’t.  Philo did show some toughness with by far his most rushes in a game this season, but that just showed how teams are focused on shutting down Jaden Baugh.  After closing the gap to trailing 17-13 early in the 3rd quarter, the offense couldn’t get anything going again until garbage time, with Tramell Jones leading a late TD drive.  The offense never could establish the running game, and had too many drives sabotaged by penalties on the O-line, putting the offense off-schedule.  This was a point of emphasis after the loss at Missouri, and unfortunately failed again.  The O-line again was physically pushed around, and the lack of talent that OC Buster Faulkner and OL Coach Phil Trautwein were previously able to mask are now being exposed.  The final total yards and passing stats by Florida were similar to Carolina, but did not tell the story played out on the field.

Well, it was nice of Florida to be such an accommodating Homecoming host and allow the Gamecocks to perhaps save their season from a complete downward spiral.  You could feel the energy and enthusiasm drain out of The Swamp crowd in the second half, as the Gators meekly succumbed – again – to a more physical opponent.  And only now is Florida entering the toughest part of it’s schedule.  From a 4-0 start, the Gators are staring down a potential stretch of 5 or 6 consecutive losses and struggling for bowl eligibility.  Yeesh.

Sumrall’s head has to be spinning, seeing things fall apart so quickly.  To his credit he maintained after each of the first 4 games that his team was far from perfect and an unfinished product, but at the same time I’d wager he did not foresee such a collapse by the defense nor the sudden struggles of the running game.  IMO this shows exactly what he inherited from Billy Napier – the lack of talent and talented depth at too many position groups along with physical limitations and mental weakness.  This is not to excuse some terrible coaching from the defensive staff that could have helped mitigate some of the larger issues, but the coaches are paid professionals, and aren’t doing their job well.  Expectations will have to be reduced dramatically.  I hate to say it, but it’s time to start looking ahead to 2027 and beyond even now.  I would have Jones ready to play more at QB the next 2 games at Texas and against Georgia.  Perhaps Will Griffin will need to see some snaps in November, because the current QB play is not good enough to overcome the deficiencies elsewhere – no fault of either Philo or Jones.  Roster analysis needs to begin now for the future, even at the expense of some hurt feelings from the holdovers from the previous regime.  Fun times.

Things suddenly have become far more interesting regarding this week’s game against South Carolina.  Florida is coming off of a disastrous performance at Missouri, while the Shane Beamer Era with the Gamecocks may be approaching it’s end, with Carolina coming in 2-3 overall and 0-3 in SEC play.  Last week’s loss was hugely disappointing, but the way it happened was all-too-familiar for Gator Nation after the previous 4 years of the Rural Meyer failure.  Some still-healing wounds were re-opened – especially by the defensive collapse – and Jon Sumralll has a LOT to try and correct starting this Saturday.

South Carolina’s offense has been productive this season, a fact overlooked due to their win/loss record.  The Gamecocks are averaging 491 yards (256 rushing) and 38 points per game.  QB LaNorris Sellers is starting for the 3rd straight season and has NFL prototype size and speed, but has been maddeningly inconsistent in his career – especially as a passer.  He is a dangerous runner and is second in carries only to RB Matthew Fuller.  Carolina averages 6.5 yards per carry, and has earned it against a strong schedule.  Florida’s front seven will be up against it on Saturday, and if they can’t at least slow down the Gamecock running ame, it could be another long afternoon for the defense as a whole.  WR Mazeo Bennett Jr. is Carolina’s leading receiver with 18 catches, but WR Nyck Harbor is the most dangerous pass-catching threat, a huge target with good speed.  Based on the poor performance of the Gator secondary this season, one or both could add to Florida’s defensive problems.  DC Brad White is getting eviscerated by both the media and Gator Nation, and he’s earned all of it.  The excuses are already tiresome – he’s had an entire spring practice, fall practice, and 5 live games to fix “communication issues” in the secondary and play more aggressively with the front seven, and hasn’t accomplished either.  Florida is languishing in the 100s in defensive ranking, and that is unacceptable given the talent on the roster.  The Gamecocks are capable of piling on to the embarrassment of last week, and this matchup likely decides the outcome.

Florida’s offense has a very rough go at Missouri, with the lack of running game the largest culprit.  It was quite the shock watching the O-line and RBs get stuffed all game, and that forced Aaron Philo into almost exclusively passing downs.  He’s not built for that nor has the passing talent to execute that kind of offense, and he and the entire offense suffered for it.  OC Brad Faulker has a lot of film study to do to figure out what went wrong – was it a tell in his scheme, or was the O-line simply exposed by pressure applied every down?  You can bet Carolina will employ the same strategy until the Gators prove they can cope with it.  If they can’t, then it could get ugly.   The WR corps is still banged up.  VB3 may play but is not 100%, and Eric Singleton still is not right. Dallas Wilson is trying to carry the load, but he too has some minor injuries and is having to play too many snaps.  TJ Abrams and the TE corps have to take up some of the slack.  Faulkner did not do a good job of utilizing the TEs or RBs to help Philo out last week, and there’s a good place to start in getting the offense moving again.  If it’s a rainy day, I think that gives an edge to the Gamecocks.

Special teams could have a huge impact.  Florida’s have been very good to date, but they will have to be careful of Gamecock punt returner Vicari Swain, who is averaging 15.8 yards per return and already has 2 TDs.  If the offense continues to struggle, the kicking game has to come up big to help the defense with field position.

It’s Homecoming week, and Gator Nation suddenly has more to worry about than expected.  It’s a 12:45 kickoff, which usually means the home crowd isn’t as wound up and loud as usual, so the Gators need to get off to a fast start and get the fans into the game early.  You can bet that Coach Beamer will throw everything he can into this game in order to get a much-needed win for their program, and knows his job is in jeopardy.  That can be a dangerous combination to deal with, and the Florida staff has a huge job to do this week to get the season back on track.  The way the defense has struggled so far, any SEC game is in doubt, and this one could easily be undecided until late.  In addition, it’s likely to be a wet week across most of the state, and the weather could play a pivotal role in this game.  It was obvious that for whatever reason the team was emotionally flat last week, and did not respond when punched in the mouth early on.  Both failures were disappointing and a little shocking to see – especially with Coach Sumrall being such a high-energy guy.  I expect a much better mental effort from Florida this week, and it will be needed to get the win.

Prediction: 

Florida 31

South Carolina 28

Like moths to a flame, the Gators ate up all of the rat poison served to them by the media and their fan base all week.  Then they traveled to Missouri and were humiliated by the Tigers 45-17 in a game that wasn’t competitive after Florida tied the score at 10 midway through the second quarter.  Even then, it was obvious that the players were flat, as there was little to no emotion or juice throughout the roster.  I included a rat poison warning at the end of my game preview, and unfortunately a lot of immaturity and inability to take and respond to some direct hits showed up all afternoon.

The performance by the Florida defense was frighteningly reminiscent of what was seen the previous 4 years – ZERO pass coverage, the front seven getting pushed around and run over, and just meekly capitulating to their opponent with no resistance.  Austin Simmons was practically untouched while torching the secondary for 340 yards passing and 2 TDs, while the Gators made Jamal Roberts look like Bo Jackson as he rolled up 211 yards rushing and 3 TDs.  The score went from 10-10 midway in the 2nd quarter to 45-10 with 4 minutes left, and it looked more like a controlled scrimmage for the Tiger offense.  DC Brad White has earned close to an ‘F’ grade so far, and I’m not kidding when I say Jon Sumrall may have to take a very hard look at scrapping everything White is trying to do and to start over…..including White’s responsibilities.  It’s that bad.  The entire secondary looks completely lost and lacks confidence in coverage, while the front seven doesn’t play with an aggressive scheme despite having a lot of SEC athletes.  There is no need to try and analyze any particular thing – this was a complete disaster.

The Gator offense was flat out bad as well, just overshadowed by the hideous defensive display.  Jaden Baugh gained 11 yards on his first carry, and finished with……13 yards on 12 carries.  You can’t make that up – a total failure by the O-line.  That left any hope of scoring up to Aaron Philo, and he simply is not built to carry a team when it has to rely solely on the passing game.  He was pressured often, and never had any real chance of rallying the offense as things turned bad midway in the 2nd quarter.  WR Dallas Wilson had 4 catches and a TD, but no one else stepped up in the absence of VB3.  TJ Abrams caught a 42-yard TD from Tramell Jones in garbage time, but I put no positive spin on that.  Again, just no energy or juice, after performing so well the first 4 games.  It was surprising given OC Buster Faulkner’s experience and success that there seemed to be no real adjustments made at halftime.

It looks like Jon Sumrall inherited a lot of negatives from Basement Boy, including the inability of many players left over from the previous regime to handle adversity, and a losing mentality when punched in the mouth.  It may take longer than anyone hoped to wash away the remnants of the damage left behind.  What an incredible disappointment, and now we’ll have to see if this team has any maturity and self-respect.  Is it willing to flush away this abomination, get back to basics, and show some fight?  Sumrall will take ownership of all the bad as a head coach should, but let’s be honest – this one is mostly on the players, along with Coach White.

Hey – maybe some good comes from this. Sumrall gets to see who on the roster is willing to fight back – or not – starting next week.  Maybe Coach Faulkner sticks around another season.  Maybe – no, hopefully – Sumrall s***-cans whatever White is doing with the defense, and also realizes he may have to make a tough staff decision much earlier than he hoped.  Sadly, for now it’s Back To The Future for Gator Football, with the nightmare of the Napier Error flashing before the eyes of Gator Nation.  Let’s see if this coach and staff can push the right buttons and get the team to bounce back – hopefully quickly.

Florida is back on the road this week, travelling to Columbia to face Missouri.  The stakes are now raised for the Gators, coming into the game ranked #8 in the country and suddenly having a LOT to play for going forward.  They now have the target on their back and can expect that much more from their opponents.  It will be interesting to see how the team responds to the added pressure and expectations.

Missouri’s offense is led by QB Austin Simmons, who transferred from Mississippi after getting injured early in the 2025 season and being replaced by Trinidad Chambliss – he knew he wasn’t going to play again and made a smart move.  Simmons has played very well in 2026, completing 65% of his passes for 236 yards per game, with 11 TDs and no interceptions.  That is winning football.  The Tigers are coming off of a road loss at Mississippi St., where their perceived areas of concern in their running game and defense were exposed.  Graduation and injuries have caused a significant step back in performance in both areas, and Florida’s defense has to press that advantage.  RB Jamal Roberts is by far their leading rusher, with 89 attempts while averaging just under 100 yards per game – albeit against some weaker competition.  Where Missouri has excelled so far is in the passing game.  Simmons has an elite WR target in Cayden Lee, who played with him at Ole Miss, and their on-field connection is noticeable.  Lee is averaging over 100 yards per game and has 4 TD catches.  Donovan Olugbode is another big target and has 5 TD receptions of his own.  The Gator secondary (again) has to be on notice and do what they can to slow down the Tigers through the air, or it could become another shootout, and that’s dangerous living.  Florida’s front seven looks to have an advantage at the line of scrimmage, but must continue to play hard and with energy every down – no let up.  You can’t expect your offense to bail you out every week.  There is one injury of note – CB Dijon Johnson limped off the field in the 3rd quarter last week, and the secondary suffered for it.  His status is in question this week, so the pass rush needs to step up it’s game to help out.  Fortunately, Simmons is not the running threat the Gators have faced the previous 2 weeks in Byrum Brown and Chambliss, so here’s hoping they can get some sacks and make Simmons uncomfortable in the pocket.  If he has time to make his reads and the coverage continues to be poor, that’s a recipe for an upset on the road.

The Florida offense has been nearly unstoppable so far, ranking among the top 5 in The country in scoring and yards per game.  While MIssouri’s defensive statistics look good so far, they had feasted on weak teams until last week, and were gashed at Starkville.  They are trying to rebuild after losing a lot of talent to the NFL the last 2 seasons, and the Gators need to keep the pressure on and put doubt into their minds early and often.  There is still talent – LBs Nick Rodriguez and Robert Woodyard Jr., along with safety Santana Banner, are far and away their 3 leading tacklers.  DE Daeden Hopkins has racked up 6 of their 12 total sacks, and Florida’s offensive tackles have to slow him down.  Of course, the best way to do that is to continue to run the ball effectively, and this will again be the key matchup for the offense.  The emergence of Duke Clark can take some of the load off of Jaden Baugh, while Aaron Philo hopefully continues to be efficient in his play – keeping the offense out of negative plays while limiting sacks and turnovers.  There are injury concerns at WR – VB3 incurred an unspecified knee injury last week and his status is unknown, while Bailey Stockton suffered that terrible targeting hit and could have some lasting effects from it.  If both or either can’t play, TJ Abrams and Micah Mays need to contribute, so Missouri can’t focus solely on Dallas Wilson.  I’m hoping Eric Singleton’s ankle injury continues to improve and that he’s available more than last week.  This might be a game where the TEs will be more involved in the passing game than expected – they have exceeded expectations so far, and could be relied upon more than usual.  Amir Jackson and Luke Harpring have been very good to date.  I know one thing – OC Buster Faulkner and OL Coach Phil Trautwein will have a good game plan put together.  Let’s hope the players stay focused and continue to play hard.

Florida’s special teams have been excellent so far, and they will have a huge challenge this week to contain kickoff and punt returner DeMarion Fowlkes.  He averages 29 yards on kickoff returns and 26 yards on punt returns, including a TD.  The Gator kickers need to do their job and the coverage units are on notice.  We saw just last week how much kick returns and punting can directly impact a game.  Of note is the fact that Patrick Durkin did not attempt the last PAT or kickoff last week for the Gators.  If he can’t play, that’s a huge blow.  

** Rat Poison Alert **

Nick Saban coined this phrase while at Alabama for when his team was coming off of a big win and everyone – fans and media included – were heaping praise on his team.  Those are the moments when your players can easily lose focus and discipline, leading to a poor performance and a loss.  Jon Sumrall and his staff now have to fight the same affliction, and keep the team humble and working hard.  Missouri and Faurot Field have a weird vibe being well outside the geographic footprint of the South, and many teams have played poorly there – including the Gators too many times.  This is no time for a letdown, but human nature being what it is and seeing far too often how teams have suffered from one, don’t be shocked if Florida stumbles and the game is in doubt until the end.

I do believe the Gators are vastly improved and have an edge in all 3 phases, but that’s why they play the games.  I want the Gators to “Show Me” that they won’t easily fall into a mental trap and waste the hard work they have put in since January.  I’m also glad that this game comes early in October, as the weather in Columbia can be dicey and oftentimes poor later in the season.  It looks like a sunny, clear day for the game – perfect for the Gator offense to continue to roll.

Prediction:

Florida 31

Missouri 20

Florida football is finally fun again.  The Gators took Ole Miss behind the woodshed at The Swamp – rolling up over 300 yards rushing, holding the ball for 37 minutes, and never letting up the pressure in a statement 52-28 victory.  That performance has caught the attention of the nation and the media for the first time since the opening win over Utah in 2022.  At least this time there’s every indication that the head coach and his staff are actually competent and professional enough to prove over time that there’s actual substance behind the result.

Florida’s offense manhandled the Rebels the entire game, totaling 495 yards of and punting only twice, both times late in each half while running out the clock.  Jaden Baugh ran for 142 yards and 3 TDs, and Duke Clark had 126 yards rushing that included 2 long runs and a TD to announce himself as a weapon in his own right and the best RB2 in the country.  As well as both of them played, it was the performance of the O-line that really opened eyes across the country, as Florida pushed Mississippi around all afternoon and dominated the line of scrimmage.  OC Buster Faulkner and OL coach Phil Trautwein are being praised nationally by pundits, and they deserve every bit of it.  What they have done in 8 months to change the mindset of the players and improve their performance is one of the best coaching jobs in recent memory.  Faulkner’s fast, attacking style has already done wonders for the offense.  Even when Ole Miss found it’s footing offensively in the second half and twice closed to within one score, the offense never missed a beat and took back the momentum quickly and decisively.  QB Aaron Philo was solid again with 196 passing yards and 1 TD, spread the ball around to 8 different receivers, and did not turn the ball over while managing the offense.  While no single receiver had a huge game, perhaps the biggest development was getting Eric Singleton back on the field for a handful of plays.  He has elite speed and immediately had an effect on the defense, drawing a pass interference call and catching a pass for 38 yards on a deep corner route, leading to the final score.  If his ankle continues to improve, he will help open up the field even more for the offense.  The halftime score of 17-6 in Florida’s favor could have been much worse for Ole Miss if the Gators hadn’t missed a few easy pass completions and failed on a short 4th down conversion in the red zone.  

Florida’s defense was once again a mixed bag of good and bad, but did just enough against a powerful Ole Miss offense to give the Gator offense enough possessions to keep control of the game.  The defensive performance was much better in the first half, including a 4th down stop in Rebel territory and holding them to 2 FGs after they had reached the red zone.  Limiting Ole Miss to 6 points was critical, as the Rebel offense came alive in the second half and scored 3 TDs in 4 drives, making for some tense moments as they tried to turn momentum their way.  Trinidad Chambliss showed why is a Heisman candidate, throwing for 298 yards and a TD while running for 47 yards and 2 TDs.  Once again the Gator secondary collapsed in the second half, leaving receivers wide open and allowing Ole Miss to score way too quickly.  Fortunately, the defense did force 2 turnovers – the first on a sack of Chambliss by Jayden Woods that forced a fumble, and an interception by DJ Coleman late in the game to end the Rebels’ last possession.  Overall the tackling was good and the front seven did a decent job defending the run.  The absence of RB Kewan Lacy due to injury did impact the Ole Miss running game, but injuries are a part of the game, and I’m not going to apologize for taking advantage of them.  Florida did have intermittent success pressuring Chambliss, but DC Brad White still has work to do on the secondary’s pass coverage.  

It’s a team game, and Florida’s special teams were exactly that on Saturday.  London Montgomery had two electric kickoff returns after the Rebels twice closed to within one score in the second half, setting up the offense in prime scoring position and immediately choking out any thoughts Ole Miss had of taking the lead.  Patrick Durkin again showed why he is one of the best placekickers in the country, making his only FG attempt, a 49-yard kick that extended the lead to 10-0.  The Gator coverage units were exceptional, allowing only a 17-yard average on 5 kickoff returns.  Punter Alec Clark had a huge moment, ending any chance of the Rebels scoring late in the first half with a 70 yard punt that went out of bounds at the Mississippi 1-yard line.  Special teams played a huge part in the victory, easily winning the hidden yards game within the game.  Those two kickoff returns kept momentum on Florida’s side and were a huge mental boost to the players while getting the crowd right back into the game.

It’s been a long time since Florida has looked this dominant against a quality SEC opponent, and the Gators are putting the rest of the league and the nation on notice that Jon Sumrall and his staff know what they’re doing and how to win.  There are still some huge challenges ahead on the schedule, but the team’s confidence has to be soaring knowing that it can compete with anyone.  That kind of juice, coming from winning games but also from the head coach every day, can go a long way.