Things suddenly have become far more interesting regarding this week’s game against South Carolina.  Florida is coming off of a disastrous performance at Missouri, while the Shane Beamer Era with the Gamecocks may be approaching it’s end, with Carolina coming in 2-3 overall and 0-3 in SEC play.  Last week’s loss was hugely disappointing, but the way it happened was all-too-familiar for Gator Nation after the previous 4 years of the Rural Meyer failure.  Some still-healing wounds were re-opened – especially by the defensive collapse – and Jon Sumralll has a LOT to try and correct starting this Saturday.

South Carolina’s offense has been productive this season, a fact overlooked due to their win/loss record.  The Gamecocks are averaging 491 yards (256 rushing) and 38 points per game.  QB LaNorris Sellers is starting for the 3rd straight season and has NFL prototype size and speed, but has been maddeningly inconsistent in his career – especially as a passer.  He is a dangerous runner and is second in carries only to RB Matthew Fuller.  Carolina averages 6.5 yards per carry, and has earned it against a strong schedule.  Florida’s front seven will be up against it on Saturday, and if they can’t at least slow down the Gamecock running ame, it could be another long afternoon for the defense as a whole.  WR Mazeo Bennett Jr. is Carolina’s leading receiver with 18 catches, but WR Nyck Harbor is the most dangerous pass-catching threat, a huge target with good speed.  Based on the poor performance of the Gator secondary this season, one or both could add to Florida’s defensive problems.  DC Brad White is getting eviscerated by both the media and Gator Nation, and he’s earned all of it.  The excuses are already tiresome – he’s had an entire spring practice, fall practice, and 5 live games to fix “communication issues” in the secondary and play more aggressively with the front seven, and hasn’t accomplished either.  Florida is languishing in the 100s in defensive ranking, and that is unacceptable given the talent on the roster.  The Gamecocks are capable of piling on to the embarrassment of last week, and this matchup likely decides the outcome.

Florida’s offense has a very rough go at Missouri, with the lack of running game the largest culprit.  It was quite the shock watching the O-line and RBs get stuffed all game, and that forced Aaron Philo into almost exclusively passing downs.  He’s not built for that nor has the passing talent to execute that kind of offense, and he and the entire offense suffered for it.  OC Brad Faulker has a lot of film study to do to figure out what went wrong – was it a tell in his scheme, or was the O-line simply exposed by pressure applied every down?  You can bet Carolina will employ the same strategy until the Gators prove they can cope with it.  If they can’t, then it could get ugly.   The WR corps is still banged up.  VB3 may play but is not 100%, and Eric Singleton still is not right. Dallas Wilson is trying to carry the load, but he too has some minor injuries and is having to play too many snaps.  TJ Abrams and the TE corps have to take up some of the slack.  Faulkner did not do a good job of utilizing the TEs or RBs to help Philo out last week, and there’s a good place to start in getting the offense moving again.  If it’s a rainy day, I think that gives an edge to the Gamecocks.

Special teams could have a huge impact.  Florida’s have been very good to date, but they will have to be careful of Gamecock punt returner Vicari Swain, who is averaging 15.8 yards per return and already has 2 TDs.  If the offense continues to struggle, the kicking game has to come up big to help the defense with field position.

It’s Homecoming week, and Gator Nation suddenly has more to worry about than expected.  It’s a 12:45 kickoff, which usually means the home crowd isn’t as wound up and loud as usual, so the Gators need to get off to a fast start and get the fans into the game early.  You can bet that Coach Beamer will throw everything he can into this game in order to get a much-needed win for their program, and knows his job is in jeopardy.  That can be a dangerous combination to deal with, and the Florida staff has a huge job to do this week to get the season back on track.  The way the defense has struggled so far, any SEC game is in doubt, and this one could easily be undecided until late.  In addition, it’s likely to be a wet week across most of the state, and the weather could play a pivotal role in this game.  It was obvious that for whatever reason the team was emotionally flat last week, and did not respond when punched in the mouth early on.  Both failures were disappointing and a little shocking to see – especially with Coach Sumrall being such a high-energy guy.  I expect a much better mental effort from Florida this week, and it will be needed to get the win.

Prediction: 

Florida 31

South Carolina 28

Like moths to a flame, the Gators ate up all of the rat poison served to them by the media and their fan base all week.  Then they traveled to Missouri and were humiliated by the Tigers 45-17 in a game that wasn’t competitive after Florida tied the score at 10 midway through the second quarter.  Even then, it was obvious that the players were flat, as there was little to no emotion or juice throughout the roster.  I included a rat poison warning at the end of my game preview, and unfortunately a lot of immaturity and inability to take and respond to some direct hits showed up all afternoon.

The performance by the Florida defense was frighteningly reminiscent of what was seen the previous 4 years – ZERO pass coverage, the front seven getting pushed around and run over, and just meekly capitulating to their opponent with no resistance.  Austin Simmons was practically untouched while torching the secondary for 340 yards passing and 2 TDs, while the Gators made Jamal Roberts look like Bo Jackson as he rolled up 211 yards rushing and 3 TDs.  The score went from 10-10 midway in the 2nd quarter to 45-10 with 4 minutes left, and it looked more like a controlled scrimmage for the Tiger offense.  DC Brad White has earned close to an ‘F’ grade so far, and I’m not kidding when I say Jon Sumrall may have to take a very hard look at scrapping everything White is trying to do and to start over…..including White’s responsibilities.  It’s that bad.  The entire secondary looks completely lost and lacks confidence in coverage, while the front seven doesn’t play with an aggressive scheme despite having a lot of SEC athletes.  There is no need to try and analyze any particular thing – this was a complete disaster.

The Gator offense was flat out bad as well, just overshadowed by the hideous defensive display.  Jaden Baugh gained 11 yards on his first carry, and finished with……13 yards on 12 carries.  You can’t make that up – a total failure by the O-line.  That left any hope of scoring up to Aaron Philo, and he simply is not built to carry a team when it has to rely solely on the passing game.  He was pressured often, and never had any real chance of rallying the offense as things turned bad midway in the 2nd quarter.  WR Dallas Wilson had 4 catches and a TD, but no one else stepped up in the absence of VB3.  TJ Abrams caught a 42-yard TD from Tramell Jones in garbage time, but I put no positive spin on that.  Again, just no energy or juice, after performing so well the first 4 games.  It was surprising given OC Buster Faulkner’s experience and success that there seemed to be no real adjustments made at halftime.

It looks like Jon Sumrall inherited a lot of negatives from Basement Boy, including the inability of many players left over from the previous regime to handle adversity, and a losing mentality when punched in the mouth.  It may take longer than anyone hoped to wash away the remnants of the damage left behind.  What an incredible disappointment, and now we’ll have to see if this team has any maturity and self-respect.  Is it willing to flush away this abomination, get back to basics, and show some fight?  Sumrall will take ownership of all the bad as a head coach should, but let’s be honest – this one is mostly on the players, along with Coach White.

Hey – maybe some good comes from this. Sumrall gets to see who on the roster is willing to fight back – or not – starting next week.  Maybe Coach Faulkner sticks around another season.  Maybe – no, hopefully – Sumrall s***-cans whatever White is doing with the defense, and also realizes he may have to make a tough staff decision much earlier than he hoped.  Sadly, for now it’s Back To The Future for Gator Football, with the nightmare of the Napier Error flashing before the eyes of Gator Nation.  Let’s see if this coach and staff can push the right buttons and get the team to bounce back – hopefully quickly.

Florida is back on the road this week, travelling to Columbia to face Missouri.  The stakes are now raised for the Gators, coming into the game ranked #8 in the country and suddenly having a LOT to play for going forward.  They now have the target on their back and can expect that much more from their opponents.  It will be interesting to see how the team responds to the added pressure and expectations.

Missouri’s offense is led by QB Austin Simmons, who transferred from Mississippi after getting injured early in the 2025 season and being replaced by Trinidad Chambliss – he knew he wasn’t going to play again and made a smart move.  Simmons has played very well in 2026, completing 65% of his passes for 236 yards per game, with 11 TDs and no interceptions.  That is winning football.  The Tigers are coming off of a road loss at Mississippi St., where their perceived areas of concern in their running game and defense were exposed.  Graduation and injuries have caused a significant step back in performance in both areas, and Florida’s defense has to press that advantage.  RB Jamal Roberts is by far their leading rusher, with 89 attempts while averaging just under 100 yards per game – albeit against some weaker competition.  Where Missouri has excelled so far is in the passing game.  Simmons has an elite WR target in Cayden Lee, who played with him at Ole Miss, and their on-field connection is noticeable.  Lee is averaging over 100 yards per game and has 4 TD catches.  Donovan Olugbode is another big target and has 5 TD receptions of his own.  The Gator secondary (again) has to be on notice and do what they can to slow down the Tigers through the air, or it could become another shootout, and that’s dangerous living.  Florida’s front seven looks to have an advantage at the line of scrimmage, but must continue to play hard and with energy every down – no let up.  You can’t expect your offense to bail you out every week.  There is one injury of note – CB Dijon Johnson limped off the field in the 3rd quarter last week, and the secondary suffered for it.  His status is in question this week, so the pass rush needs to step up it’s game to help out.  Fortunately, Simmons is not the running threat the Gators have faced the previous 2 weeks in Byrum Brown and Chambliss, so here’s hoping they can get some sacks and make Simmons uncomfortable in the pocket.  If he has time to make his reads and the coverage continues to be poor, that’s a recipe for an upset on the road.

The Florida offense has been nearly unstoppable so far, ranking among the top 5 in The country in scoring and yards per game.  While MIssouri’s defensive statistics look good so far, they had feasted on weak teams until last week, and were gashed at Starkville.  They are trying to rebuild after losing a lot of talent to the NFL the last 2 seasons, and the Gators need to keep the pressure on and put doubt into their minds early and often.  There is still talent – LBs Nick Rodriguez and Robert Woodyard Jr., along with safety Santana Banner, are far and away their 3 leading tacklers.  DE Daeden Hopkins has racked up 6 of their 12 total sacks, and Florida’s offensive tackles have to slow him down.  Of course, the best way to do that is to continue to run the ball effectively, and this will again be the key matchup for the offense.  The emergence of Duke Clark can take some of the load off of Jaden Baugh, while Aaron Philo hopefully continues to be efficient in his play – keeping the offense out of negative plays while limiting sacks and turnovers.  There are injury concerns at WR – VB3 incurred an unspecified knee injury last week and his status is unknown, while Bailey Stockton suffered that terrible targeting hit and could have some lasting effects from it.  If both or either can’t play, TJ Abrams and Micah Mays need to contribute, so Missouri can’t focus solely on Dallas Wilson.  I’m hoping Eric Singleton’s ankle injury continues to improve and that he’s available more than last week.  This might be a game where the TEs will be more involved in the passing game than expected – they have exceeded expectations so far, and could be relied upon more than usual.  Amir Jackson and Luke Harpring have been very good to date.  I know one thing – OC Buster Faulkner and OL Coach Phil Trautwein will have a good game plan put together.  Let’s hope the players stay focused and continue to play hard.

Florida’s special teams have been excellent so far, and they will have a huge challenge this week to contain kickoff and punt returner DeMarion Fowlkes.  He averages 29 yards on kickoff returns and 26 yards on punt returns, including a TD.  The Gator kickers need to do their job and the coverage units are on notice.  We saw just last week how much kick returns and punting can directly impact a game.  Of note is the fact that Patrick Durkin did not attempt the last PAT or kickoff last week for the Gators.  If he can’t play, that’s a huge blow.  

** Rat Poison Alert **

Nick Saban coined this phrase while at Alabama for when his team was coming off of a big win and everyone – fans and media included – were heaping praise on his team.  Those are the moments when your players can easily lose focus and discipline, leading to a poor performance and a loss.  Jon Sumrall and his staff now have to fight the same affliction, and keep the team humble and working hard.  Missouri and Faurot Field have a weird vibe being well outside the geographic footprint of the South, and many teams have played poorly there – including the Gators too many times.  This is no time for a letdown, but human nature being what it is and seeing far too often how teams have suffered from one, don’t be shocked if Florida stumbles and the game is in doubt until the end.

I do believe the Gators are vastly improved and have an edge in all 3 phases, but that’s why they play the games.  I want the Gators to “Show Me” that they won’t easily fall into a mental trap and waste the hard work they have put in since January.  I’m also glad that this game comes early in October, as the weather in Columbia can be dicey and oftentimes poor later in the season.  It looks like a sunny, clear day for the game – perfect for the Gator offense to continue to roll.

Prediction:

Florida 31

Missouri 20

Florida football is finally fun again.  The Gators took Ole Miss behind the woodshed at The Swamp – rolling up over 300 yards rushing, holding the ball for 37 minutes, and never letting up the pressure in a statement 52-28 victory.  That performance has caught the attention of the nation and the media for the first time since the opening win over Utah in 2022.  At least this time there’s every indication that the head coach and his staff are actually competent and professional enough to prove over time that there’s actual substance behind the result.

Florida’s offense manhandled the Rebels the entire game, totaling 495 yards of and punting only twice, both times late in each half while running out the clock.  Jaden Baugh ran for 142 yards and 3 TDs, and Duke Clark had 126 yards rushing that included 2 long runs and a TD to announce himself as a weapon in his own right and the best RB2 in the country.  As well as both of them played, it was the performance of the O-line that really opened eyes across the country, as Florida pushed Mississippi around all afternoon and dominated the line of scrimmage.  OC Buster Faulkner and OL coach Phil Trautwein are being praised nationally by pundits, and they deserve every bit of it.  What they have done in 8 months to change the mindset of the players and improve their performance is one of the best coaching jobs in recent memory.  Faulkner’s fast, attacking style has already done wonders for the offense.  Even when Ole Miss found it’s footing offensively in the second half and twice closed to within one score, the offense never missed a beat and took back the momentum quickly and decisively.  QB Aaron Philo was solid again with 196 passing yards and 1 TD, spread the ball around to 8 different receivers, and did not turn the ball over while managing the offense.  While no single receiver had a huge game, perhaps the biggest development was getting Eric Singleton back on the field for a handful of plays.  He has elite speed and immediately had an effect on the defense, drawing a pass interference call and catching a pass for 38 yards on a deep corner route, leading to the final score.  If his ankle continues to improve, he will help open up the field even more for the offense.  The halftime score of 17-6 in Florida’s favor could have been much worse for Ole Miss if the Gators hadn’t missed a few easy pass completions and failed on a short 4th down conversion in the red zone.  

Florida’s defense was once again a mixed bag of good and bad, but did just enough against a powerful Ole Miss offense to give the Gator offense enough possessions to keep control of the game.  The defensive performance was much better in the first half, including a 4th down stop in Rebel territory and holding them to 2 FGs after they had reached the red zone.  Limiting Ole Miss to 6 points was critical, as the Rebel offense came alive in the second half and scored 3 TDs in 4 drives, making for some tense moments as they tried to turn momentum their way.  Trinidad Chambliss showed why is a Heisman candidate, throwing for 298 yards and a TD while running for 47 yards and 2 TDs.  Once again the Gator secondary collapsed in the second half, leaving receivers wide open and allowing Ole Miss to score way too quickly.  Fortunately, the defense did force 2 turnovers – the first on a sack of Chambliss by Jayden Woods that forced a fumble, and an interception by DJ Coleman late in the game to end the Rebels’ last possession.  Overall the tackling was good and the front seven did a decent job defending the run.  The absence of RB Kewan Lacy due to injury did impact the Ole Miss running game, but injuries are a part of the game, and I’m not going to apologize for taking advantage of them.  Florida did have intermittent success pressuring Chambliss, but DC Brad White still has work to do on the secondary’s pass coverage.  

It’s a team game, and Florida’s special teams were exactly that on Saturday.  London Montgomery had two electric kickoff returns after the Rebels twice closed to within one score in the second half, setting up the offense in prime scoring position and immediately choking out any thoughts Ole Miss had of taking the lead.  Patrick Durkin again showed why he is one of the best placekickers in the country, making his only FG attempt, a 49-yard kick that extended the lead to 10-0.  The Gator coverage units were exceptional, allowing only a 17-yard average on 5 kickoff returns.  Punter Alec Clark had a huge moment, ending any chance of the Rebels scoring late in the first half with a 70 yard punt that went out of bounds at the Mississippi 1-yard line.  Special teams played a huge part in the victory, easily winning the hidden yards game within the game.  Those two kickoff returns kept momentum on Florida’s side and were a huge mental boost to the players while getting the crowd right back into the game.

It’s been a long time since Florida has looked this dominant against a quality SEC opponent, and the Gators are putting the rest of the league and the nation on notice that Jon Sumrall and his staff know what they’re doing and how to win.  There are still some huge challenges ahead on the schedule, but the team’s confidence has to be soaring knowing that it can compete with anyone.  That kind of juice, coming from winning games but also from the head coach every day, can go a long way.

It’s a huge showdown in the Swamp this Saturday, with Florida hosting Ole MIss.  Both teams are coming off emotional wins last week, and each tries to keep the train rolling in SEC play.  The Rebels closed out former head coach Lane Kiffin and his new school, LSU, at home, and will provide the first of a handful of huge challenges for the Gators this season.

The Rebels are led by QB Trinidad Chambliss, who pilots a fast-paced, high-scoring offense that is similar in style to Auburn, but is faster and more efficient and led by a much better QB.  Chambliss is a dangerous runner and a better passer than Byrum Brown, and leads the SEC with 308 passing yards per game.  He’s also their second-leading ball carrier, showing how important he is to the offense and why he’s a Heisman candidate.  Kewan Lacy is in the discussion for best RB in the SEC, and is also a decent receiver.  His status for the game will be watched closely, as he injured his shoulder against LSU and will be a game-time decision.  If he can’t play or sees limited action, that’s a big help for the Gators.  WR Deuce Alexander is one of the fastest players in the country, leads the SEC in receptions and receiving yards, and is Chambliss’ primary target.  TE Caleb Odom is a huge target and averages 19 yards per catch.  Ole Miss has plenty of weapons to challenge Florida’s defense, and the Gators have a tough task ahead just to slow down the Rebels somewhat to give their offense enough possessions and scoring opportunities to win.   DC Brad White and Head Coach Jon Sumrall are not happy with the defensive results so far, nor should they be.  There have been too many missed assignments in the secondary allowing easy pass completions, and the LBs – thought to be the strength of the unit – have not had much impact.  If this means simplifying the scheme to let the defenders more easily identify their responsibility each play, then have at it, because Ole Miss will carve them up if they don’t improve.  The D-line has been solid so far, and had it’s breakout performance at Auburn.  Now – can they continue that level of play?  They’ll have to disrupt the Rebel offense and get Chambliss off of his first read.  He’s elusive enough that he can make scramble plays against any defense in the country, but he also will turn the ball over when successfully pressured.

Florida’s offense will again have to be proficient and score a lot of points.  The Ole MIss defense can be had, especially in the passing game, so I expect more up-tempo pace and passes that attack all 3 levels of the Rebel defense.  In a perfect world, the Gators could control time of possession by running Jaden Baugh and Duke Clark a combined 40+ times and limiting the number of possessions for the Rebel offense.  But given Florida’s defensive lapses to date plus the elite playmaking ability of Chambliss, I don’t think they’ll have that luxury and will need as many scoring opportunities as they can get.  Having this game at home should be a huge advantage for the Gator offense to limit penalties and communicate play calls quickly.  Florida’s O-line will have to play it’s best game yet, as the Rebels have rolled up 22 sacks through just 3 games.  The OL have to clean up some pass protection issues, especially the tackles.  Suntarine Perkins is one of the best pass rushers in the SEC, and the Ole Miss LB corps is strong and includes the team’s 3 leading tacklers, including Tah’j Butler and Keaton Thomas.

Florida does seem to have a slight advantage on special teams, and winning in the margins may be the difference.  PK Patrick Durkin has been great so far, and VB3 is a threat in the return game when given the chance.  Every phase of the game will need to be on point to win.

This game has the makings of another wild shootout.  It will be interesting to see if Florida’s coaching staff can get it’s younger, less-experienced team refocused.   Ole Miss has now played it’s last 6 games going back to last year’s Playoff against ranked opponents, going 5-1.  That experience against tough competition can’t be overstated, and gives them a decided mental edge.  If things go sideways early for them, they will not panic.  Florida won’t have the luxury of easing off in the 4th quarter like last week – this game will be a 60 minute war, and likely not decided until very late.  I picked Ole Miss to win in my preseason preview, and I’m going to stick with that, despite Florida’s marked improvement from last season.  The Gators certainly have a chance to win – especially at The Swamp – but will have to play even better overall than against Auburn to do it.  Winning the turnover battle and limiting penalties will be critical to Florida’s chances.

Prediction:

Mississippi 38

Florida 35

Florida earned a much needed 44-39 win at Auburn Saturday night.  This result was huge for many reasons – Jon Sumrall’s program, the confidence of a team not used to winning big games under Basement Billy, injecting life and juice into the fan base, and putting the rest of the SEC on notice that Florida must be reckoned with again.

The game wasn’t pretty at times, with the Gators committing 16 penalties (some very dubious), while the defense struggled to get off the field on 3rd and 4th down too often and did a poor job of closing out the 4th quarter.  While disappointing, I can’t say I’m shocked, given the poor coaching and losing mentality left behind by Rural Meyer.  Many of these current Gators had little starting experience in such a tough environment, nerves were certainly a factor, and the O-line and secondary have been rebuilt.  But after 60 minutes it was clear that Florida was the superior team, and the game itself wasn’t as close as the final score.

Buster Faulkner has to be the early front-runner for National Assistant Coach of the Year.  He completely schooled Auburn DC DJ Durkin, as the Gators rolled up 495 yards of offense, which included 200+ rushing yards against a solid SEC defense and only one punt.  Faulkner’s playcalling and scheme were quick, decisive, and aggressive – all of which have been missing in Gainesville for far too long.  QB Aaron Philo was sharp, making good reads and throws even when taking some big hits.  He looked calm and in command all night, and has ended any concerns about the offseason battle for the starting job.  Jaden Baugh had 162 yards and 3 rushing TDs, again showing why he is in the conversation for best RB in the SEC and starting to receive national attention.  Notably, it appears that Duke Clark has solidified the RB2 slot, as he delivered two massive clutch plays – breaking multiple tackles for a TD on 3rd and goal from the 20, and then catching a 4th down pass to extend Florida’s last scoring possession in the 4th quarter, which led to a 12-point lead with under 11 minutes left – enough for the defense to protect despite it’s letdown.  WRs VB3 and Dallas Wilson were open all night and had quite a few chunk plays, including a TD reception by Wilson on a beautiful seam route.  The Gator O-line held up well enough despite some annoying procedure penalties and some occasional shoddy pass-blocking by the tackles.  Finally, the offense ran up-tempo for much of the night, not allowing Auburn to substitute as often as it wished and simplifying the defenses it had to face – what a concept!   It’s funny to think of how a 44 point explosion on the road could leave room for improvement, but there’s still plenty to work on – especially for the OL.  Quite the turnaround from the last 4 years of mostly slow-paced, poorly played, unimaginative garbage. 

Florida’s defense was a weird dichotomy of big plays combined with mental and physical letdowns that allowed Auburn to stay closer than it should have.  Cormani McClain made a huge interception on Auburn’s first drive to set up Florida’s opening score and gain momentum.  The front seven controlled the Tiger running game less some scramble plays from QB Byrum Brown.  The D-line racked up 7 sacks led by Emmanuel Oyebadejo, who looked like a man amongst boys.  His performance shows what can happen when opponents have to focus on Jayden Woods, who had 2.5 sacks of his own despite many double-teams.  The Gators allowed only 212 yards through 3 quarters before a sloppy finish allowed Auburn to rack up 160 yards and 2 TDs in the last 10 minutes.  That required the offense to continue to grind out some first downs and a late FG to keep the lead safe.  The secondary is still letting receivers get wide open too often, and the LBs have been mysteriously quiet.  DC Brad White really needs to simplify things and play a more aggressive style, because this is not sustainable against the better teams left on the schedule.

Special teams were solid again.  PK Patrick Durkin converted his 2 FG attempts and is still perfect on the season, and 7 of his 9 kickoffs were touchbacks.  Punter Alec Clark might be the loneliest man in college football, getting only his third punt attempt of the season late in the 4th quarter when the Gators were simply running time off the clock to preserve a 12-point lead.  VB3’s only punt return went for over 20 yards, but was called back due to a bad penalty away from the play.

I’ve listed a lot of issues for the staff and players to work on, but I haven’t lost sight of the fact that this game was a massive boost for the program and what Jon Sumrall is trying to build.  Auburn is not near the elite teams left on the schedule, but winning on the Plains, rolling up 44 points, and actually earning an important win gives the players confidence in both themselves and the coaching staff.  There are much bigger challenges ahead, but positive results like this can build momentum and give some juice to the team and Gator Nation.  Getting a winning feeling back and actually having fun playing the games has been missing since 2020.  Things start to get really interesting next week, with the Gators hosting Ole Miss In a battle of unbeatens with much of the nation watching – as it should be.

The  preliminaries are over, and sh*t is about to get real starting Saturday night at Auburn.  Despite two easy wins, Gator Nation and the rest of the country are waiting to see if Florida is really on a better trajectory under Jon Sumrall.  It may be too soon to tell no matter the outcome, but perception is reality – moreso now than ever.

Auburn’s offense is led by QB Byrum Brown, who transferred from USF to the Plains to follow head coach Alex Golesh.  Golesh brought in a total 13 players from USF – 11 on offense – with Brown and leading WR Keshaun Singleton being the most important.  The Tigers have incorporated the same fast-tempo USF offense, and Florida’s defense must be alert and ready.  Brown is more a running threat than a passing one, and DC Brad White has to know this and have his unit ready for designed runs and scramble plays.  Fortunately, the Gators have already experienced a similar offense against FAU, and many of the current defenders played USF in the Swamp last season, so they do have familiarity with the scheme and pace.  Brown is essentially a one-trick pony – get him off his first read, and he’ll start to scramble and run.  It’s incumbent on the front seven to get some pressure on Brown and force him into making reads and increasing the chances for a turnover.  Auburn has some decent RBs in Jeremiah Cobb and Omar Mabson, but neither is a breakaway threat.  In fact, Brown leads the team in carries, and Florida should be ready to spy him to prevent him extending drives.  Auburn’s WR corps isdecent, but lacks gamebreakers.  Singleton is by far brown’s favorite receiver, and the defense should mark him closely.  Florida’s biggest edge might be against the Tiger O-line.  It has 5 new starters made up of mostly transfers, and had some serious struggles in their first game against Baylor.  Florida has to be able to disrupt the blocking schemes and cause some havoc, or else it may be a long night.

Florida’s offense has not been tested yet, and Auburn has a strong front seven led by a solid LB corps featuring leading tackler Elijah Melendez.  I am sure that DC DJ Durkin will be heating up QB Aaron Philo and the O-line all game.  That, plus the crowd noise, makes this a tough challenge and a stark contrast to the first 2 games.  Philo must be smart, make quick and decisive reads and attack the Tiger secondary, which showed some weakness against Baylor.  He has all the weapons he needs in Jaden Baugh, VB3, and Dallas Wilson, but can the O-line give him the time to make the right reads and plays?  Auburn will be focused on challenging the LOS and stopping Baugh, so there will be opportunities for explosive plays in the passing game.  Florida has not thrown much to the running backs so far, but they are capable receivers and could be a way to offset pressure on Philo and to generate some big plays.  I am confident in OC Brad Faulkner and OC Coach Phil Trautwein to devise a winning game plan, but I’m not sure they have the horses on the O-line to execute it.  Faulkner will undoubtedly have plenty of formations and plays he hasn’t revealed on film the first two games.  That’s why they play the games, and we’ll see soon enough.  

Auburn’s special teams are solid with PK Alex McPherson and Rayshawn Pleasant on kickoff returns.  However, Florida comes in with a decided advantage in kicking experience with PK Patrick Durkin and P Alec Clark, and has the current co-SEC special teams player of the week in VB3 returning punts.  I feel good about this matchup, and in a close game with so many unknowns on both sides, this could be the difference in the outcome.

Auburn is a tough place to play and weird things happen to opponents there – many times due to extremely shady officiating – both on the field and in the replay booth.  Their fan base has been suffering for much of the past decade and is in a similar place as Florida’s – desperately hoping for a turnaround of fortune and some meaningful success.  Two similar teams, two new head coaches in their first big matchup at their new school, and the result could be a massive boost for the winner and an equally large setback for the loser for the rest of this season.  Any momentum that can be gained during the game will be especially big for two teams looking to turn their fortunes around and coming in with fragile psyches.  It will be a wild atmosphere on the Plains, and we’ll see quickly if Sumrall and his staff have the Gators focused and ready.  I picked Florida to win in my season preview and I’ll stick with that pick, but I expect a tough game that could go either way.  

Prediction:

Florida 23

Auburn 20